ASEAN Morning Bytes
Asian markets to move sideways as investors monitor US political developments and Fed speak
EM Space: Democrats move to impeach Trump in wake of Capitol riots
- General Asia: Asian markets are likely to move sideways on Wednesday with investors monitoring political developments as Democrats look to impeach Trump for a second time, citing his role in last week’s riots at the Capitol. Fed speakers overnight looked to quell any concerns about an early exit from the Fed’s bond purchase program indicating that support would likely be present for some time. Economic data for the week is relatively light although US inflation is slated for release later in the session while Fed speakers are also scheduled to deliver separate remarks also on Wednesday. Investors will likely remain cautious, monitoring Covid-19 developments as well as the pending impeachment case against Donald Trump.
- Thailand: The government announced a fresh Covid-19 stimulus of THB 210 billion (1.2% of GDP) as the economy grapples with a sharp spike in infections since December. The measures include cash handouts, reductions in utility bills and property taxes, and easier bank lending to businesses. Separately, the Bank of Thailand also extended debt relief measures for SMEs and retail borrowers until mid-2021. While the additional stimulus may help to mitigate the impact of the virus on domestic demand, Thailand’s economic recovery this year hinges largely on a return of tourists. We continue to anticipate modest recovery with 2.8% GDP growth forecast in 2021.
- Indonesia: President Jokowi will be the first citizen to receive the Covid-19 vaccine in Indonesia as he kicks off the country’s vaccination program. Indonesia has moved to lock in vaccine doses from several sources and will also look to produce the vaccine locally. Indonesia currently has the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the region and is currently dealing with a post-holiday spike in infections with Java and Bali back in partial lockdown. A robust vaccination program will be crucial in bolstering consumer confidence and help drive economic recovery in the coming quarters.
- Philippines: Finance Secretary Dominguez reported that the 2020 deficit-to-GDP ratio likely settled at 7.5% of GDP, more than doubling last year’s 3.5% reading as the pandemic slowed revenue collection while expenditures surged to deal with the fallout from the economic recession. Authorities expect the deficit to widen in 2021 to 8.9% of GDP with the government likely to finance the bulk of the shortfall via domestic borrowings. Increased borrowing from the local government however will not likely force yields higher given the high level of excess liquidity in the system.
What to look out for: Covid-19 deployments
- US CPI inflation (13 January)
- Fed’s Brainard, George and Rosengren give speeches (13 January)
- China trade (14 January)
- US initial jobless claims (14 January)
- Fed’s Clarida gives a speech (14 January)
- Indonesia trade balance (15 January)
- Bank of Korea policy meeting (15 January)
- Philippines remittances (15 January)
- US retail sales, consumer sentiment and industrial production (15 January)
- Fed’s Powell and Kaplan give speeches (15 January)
Download
Download article13 January 2021
Good MornING Asia - 13 January 2021 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).