Snap11 June 2018Updated one month ago

Romania: Trade balance improving in April

For the first time in almost two years the trade balance deficit narrowed, by 3.5% YoY. This might be another sign of the economy slowing.

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Exports continued to accelerate in April, reaching 9.7% growth YoY. The auto sector remains the main driver, accelerating to 11.3% YoY and thus contributing 5.4ppt to total export growth. Acceleration is visible also in food items and other manufactured products.

Imports accelerated as well, to 7.3% YoY from 5.8% in Mar-18 and driven by the dynamic auto sector (+8.1% YoY) and other manufactured products (+8.3% YoY). Food items saw their fourth consecutive month of deceleration but still posted 4.9% YoY growth.

Auto sector out on its own

NIS, ING
NIS, ING

As mentioned in our previous note, we expect rebalancing  to continue. Nevertheless, with the notable exception of the auto sector, the underlying reasons are more to do with the economy slowing and less with structural improvement and/or competitive gains.