It’s been a few quiet days for the EUR/RON as the pair doesn’t seem to be able to break away from the current 4.7600 level around which it's been trading for some time. With no major data on the calendar, we expect the pair to remain stable around this level.
The successful Apr-2026 auction wasn't able to shake up the numb government bond market. The Ministry of Finance allocated RON409 million (vs RON400 million target) at 4.71/4.74 average and maximum yields, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.74x. That’s a touch better than our call of 4.75%. Moreover, the demand structure looked promising given the RON243 million of non-competitive bids, which suggest real money interest.
Cash rates remain anchored around 3.50%. We expect an easing bias as we approach the end of the current reserve maintenance period.