We predict that the National Bank of Romania will keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting on 6 August, rather than raise rates as the consensus predicts. Read our full report to find out why
The Bloomberg consensus is for Romania's central bank to hike rates from a current level of 2.5%, at its meeting on Monday. We disagree with this view for the following reasons:
We attach a 20% probability to a 25 basis point hike, as policymakers could be minded to factor in the consensus view.