Inflation data and clues about the state of manufacturing will take centre stage in EMEA and Latam next week
In Hungary, we are looking for a further acceleration of PPI, as in Germany and China. Across Europe, 'soft' economic indicators have been mixed but we believe Hungary will be on the brighter side, with manufacturing PMI posting an increase - particularly because of recently announced new capacity, which should fuel optimism. Retail sales are to remain strong; we see a significant contribution from consumption in the 2Q18 GDP reading.
Different week, same old story; the US's strong growth prevails with expectations of a 4%+ GDP reading in 2Q18, but it seems we can say quite the opposite for Sweden...take a look to see what else is going on in developed markets next week
The US experienced robust growth in 2Q18, which we expect will be underlined by a 4%+ GDP reading. Consumer and business activity has been boosted by massive tax cuts with the positive momentum carrying over into 3Q. As such, employment growth remains strong, with unemployment set to dip back below 4% on Friday while payrolls look set to rise by around 190,000 in June - above the average for 2017. With the ISM surveys continuing to point to strong economic expansion and with inflation measures continuing to move higher, the Federal Reserve is likely to sound a little more positive on the economy at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting but stick to its “gradual” approach to policy tightening. No change from the Federal Reserve next week but we do look for a hike in September.
Korea’s July trade data and central bank policy meetings in Japan and India will be the highlights next week
A raft of economic data for July will come as the first test of the trade war that kicked off earlier this month.
While the 'soft' data on manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) may show the impact on sentiment, the hard data on trade should provide some sense of the actual hit. This keeps Korean trade data for July, the first for the month from Asia and probably the world, in the spotlight.
We expect a small annual decline of 2.6% in Korean exports - the second consecutive negative print.
Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars