A heavy data week ahead in EMEA and Latam with a flurry of central bank meetings. With a common 'on hold' theme amongst the banks, it's the commentary
Following a broad-based disinflationary trend in December, we expect January inflation to remain relatively benign at 0.9%, pulling the annual figure down to 20.1%. This is due to to weak domestic demand, a stable currency, the government’s decision to extend tax cuts on consumer durables and price cuts in natural gas, electricity and water - though food prices could pose upside risks.
It's back to the Brexit drawing board for Theresa May next week as she heads to Europe for more talks. But with the EU standing firm, is there any chance for a deal that parliament can agree on? Elsewhere, a backlog of delayed US data is due over the next few weeks following the end of the government shutdown
Now that the government shutdown has
We have of course continued to get jobs numbers, which show the labour market remains tight. This, in turn, is pushing up wages as companies hunt desperately for workers with the right skills. With households seeing rising incomes and feeling secure in their jobs, consumers have the cash and the confidence to keep spending. Unfortunately, the different government departments haven’t formally given us the dates and timings of their respective releases, but the general tone should be constructive with our base case - that decent economic activity and rising inflation pressures will trigger two further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year.
Thinner market liquidity and busier central banks will define trading in Asia next week. The Lunar New Year holiday in most countries will reduce liquidity. Four regional central banks hold policy meetings, with the key question being whether those of India and the Philippines will ease policy or stand pat. Gong Xi Fa Cai!
It’s going to be a dull week with Chinese markets on holiday all of next week for the New Lunar Year, the first of two Golden Weeks holidays in China in a year, while most other Asian markets are also out for a day or two to usher in the Year of the Pig. The week is also scant on economic data from the region.
However, any trading that does take place in regional markets next week will be driven by US-China trade tensions. Scepticism about progress from the ongoing high-level talks abounds but any positive news could put to rest expectations of prolonged trade tensions weighing on global growth.
Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars