ING’s June Economic Update

Global outlook: A long, hot summer…

US: Trading on Trump

US growth appears to be bouncing back sharply in 2Q18, leaving the Federal Reserve on course to hike interest rates three more times this year.…

Eurozone: Politics to the fore again

Italian and Spanish politics provided some drama over the last few weeks, while on the international scene trade tensions are growing. However, despite…

UK: A summer of tough decisions

Markets have reassessed their Bank of England expectations. But as wage growth rises, we suspect rates hikes are coming

China: Strongly against a trade war

The US's changing stance towards China is a reflection of its concern about the rise of China. If the US continues its hostility towards "Made in…

Japan: The pause that refreshes

The 1Q18 slowdown was likely only a pause, nothing more, and we anticipate activity strengthening in 2Q18 - barring disasters, such as an all-out trade war

FX: Poor visibility

We are cutting our year-end EUR/USD forecast to 1.23 from 1.30

Rates: Italian hiccup for core

We continue to target 3.25% to 3.5% for the US 10-year and the 50bp to 100bp range for the 10-year German Bund (QE decision dependent)