Global Economic Outlook: Trump’s Trade Gamble

Our monthly economic outlook for July is dominated by the uncertainty created by President Trump's moves on tariffs and trade. There's limited evidence that protectionist measures are derailing global growth so far but risks are skewed to the downside over the summer

In this bundle

Global Outlook: Trump’s Trade Gamble

Uncertainty from President Trump's economic pronouncements could be more dangerous for the global economy than the direct impact on trade

Eurozone: The ECB takes it slowly

After a strong 2017, political instability and trade tensions within the eurozone are pointing towards more moderate growth rates for 2018

United States

US: Keep pushing…

With a strong economy and minimal impact from tariffs, Trump is likely to forge ahead with his agenda ahead of the November elections. Uncertainty and…

FX: Evaluating the scenarios

This July could prove to be a testing month for FX markets, given the rise in trade tensions

Rates

Rates: Just 30bp, seriously?

This July, rates remain under wraps due to dollar strength, geopolitics and a resistance by central banks to hike rates

China

China: The retaliation cycle

A tit-for-tat trade war will hurt China's economic growth in the second quarter and will put pressure on the yuan

Japan

Japan: Momentum slipping

Japan's activity indicators have slipped from 'good' to 'mediocre', but its unclear if this downtrend will continue