ING’s July Economic Update: Taking stock at half-time

Euro 2020 has provided a welcome distraction and an opportunity to celebrate after a long and difficult year. But the crowded stadiums are also a reminder of the dangers ahead. The Delta variant is spreading fast and the race to vaccinate has never been more urgent. In this update, we take stock of where we are at 'half-time' and review our forecasts for 2021

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United States

US: Feeling the squeeze

Evidence is mounting that while demand is booming, the pandemic has led to damaging scarring of the economy. Supply bottlenecks will be slow to ease,…

Eurozone: Vaccination vs Delta

The holiday season is likely to spread the Delta variant more widely across the eurozone, though a rapidly advancing vaccination campaign will limit the…

United Kingdom

UK: Covid presses pause on the economic recovery

Activity data has pulled back from recent highs amid rocketing Covid-19 cases. Thankfully hospitalisations and mortality have been much lower than past…

China

China’s centenary speech spells a long tech war ahead

The message from Xi Jinping's speech marking the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party is clear - he wants China to be a force to be…

Asia: The race to vaccinate

Asia has recently made better progress on vaccinations as vaccines become more widely available. But there is still a long way to go

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Commodities: Losing momentum

Parts of the commodities complex appear to be running out of steam, with downward corrections seen in metals and agriculture over June. However, energy…

FX: Compressed Fed exit sequence prompts dollar forecast upgrade

Having been dollar bears since April 2020, this month we feel compelled to raise our forecast dollar profile on what appears to be the start of a more…

Rates

Rates: Not bothered

Despite the upbeat macro data, market rates have lurched lower. The eurozone 10yr swap rate remains above zero, but only just. The US 10yr swap rate is…

ING mid-year update: Reviewing our 2021 forecasts

Our economists review the predictions they made in our economic outlook last November and reflect on what the implications are for the rest of the year.

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United States

Inflation - really nothing to worry about?

Rising inflation in the US and Europe is likely to be transitory but the transition period may be longer and wobblier than previously anticipated

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Report

ING’s July Economic Update: Taking stock at half-time

Euro 2020 has provided a welcome distraction and, for some, an opportunity to celebrate after a long and difficult year. But it was also a reminder of the…