Bundles

2 April 2020

Covid-19: The scenarios, the lockdown, the reaction, the recovery

In this bundle

Covid-19: The scenarios, the lockdown, the reaction, the recovery

Our April Economic Update brings you economic truths of the Covid-19 crisis, our scenarios for the future and the reality of living in what sounds like…

Four scenarios for the global economy after Covid-19

We map out the hit to the global economy and possible path for recovery under four different coronavirus scenarios

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US: The only way is up!

After being crushed through March and April much of the economy will recover once containment measures are eased. However, some parts will continue to…

Eurozone: GDP contraction to rival great recession

With most eurozone countries in partial or full lockdown, GDP contraction this year is likely to rival the Great Recession. While the European Central…

United Kingdom

UK: Economic challenges build, despite bold stimulus

The UK government's fiscal response has been well-designed, but with the details of some schemes only just emerging, the challenge now will be to…

China

China draws a recovery roadmap

China has decided to relax the lockdown of Wuhan city but maintain strict social distancing in most cities. This is the first step to getting the economic…

Japan

Japan: A ‘good’ pandemic

Having kept early coronavirus cases in check, Japan is seeing them rise more rapidly, and lockdowns are possible. Fiscal stimulus equal to 10% or more is…

FX: In the dollar we do not trust

Given huge adjustments in financial markets, we are now being asked: ‘What’s mis-priced?’. 10-20% declines against the dollar argue that…

Central and Eastern Europe FX: Negative growth, more easing ahead

All CEE countries should experience negative growth in 2020, with 2Q20 constituting the bottom. All banks in the region are in full easing mode. We expect…

Rates: Swing low

Rates have to stay low. They could get there the hard way, from a multi-quarter shutdown - unlikely, fortunately. But even in the dream scenario of a…

How global emergency economic measures compare?

The coronavirus pandemic has caused governments around the world to announce emergency measures to battle the economic fallout. Governments have learned…

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When will the lockdown really end?

Some countries in Europe may try to end lockdown measures at the end of April. But those currently suffering large-scale infections won't be in a…

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Which eurozone countries are most vulnerable?

The health crisis in Spain and Italy is the most severe of all eurozone countries. What's more, southern eurozone economies are especially vulnerable…

Is this the time for a (euro) Coronabond?

The political will to pool risk across the eurozone with a common Coronabond is not there, yet. As a result, debt mutualisation will continue through the…

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How a post-Covid world could look

Low interest rates for even longer or maybe even forever, and ballooning government balance sheets will shape the post Covid-19 era. But that's not…

What’s the end game for emergency fiscal and monetary policy?

With monetary firepower largely spent, and fiscal deficits surging, governments may well increasingly look towards a form of monetary financing as a way…

Credit

Covid-19 could leave a legacy of EM debt distress

Challenges are coming for those countries which have overly relied on commodity exports and tourism, resulting in weaker fiscal revenues and current…

Countries hit most by the coronavirus value chain shock

Even before Covid-19 led to country-wide lockdowns, supply chain shocks and weak foreign demand were already taking a toll. Small open economies, such as…