A step ahead on the next US election
'As we've seen in markets around the world, politics are now really very formative in terms of market performance'. That's the view of ING's Chief Economist, Mark Cliffe, following the release of our major report, 'US Politics Watch: Four scenarios for 2020 and beyond'. The report looks at the implications for four different scenarios in 2020: A Trump re-election, a different Republican win, a centrist Democrat win or a populist Democrat win.
Mark was speaking to Adam Shapiro and Julie Human from Yahoo! Finance's 'On The Move' programme in New York. He told them that the US economy could face a boom-bust scenario if Donald Trump wins a second term. Conversely, the economy could face headwinds from higher taxes and protectionism if a populist Democrat becomes president.
You can watch the whole interview here
Investors need to pay attention now
Mark says that investors 'really owe it to themselves to start thinking about this', adding that ING's clients are 'devouring' the report. Although we're still early in the election cycle, he says that a lot of non-Americans are really quite surprised about the idea that Donald Trump is actually favourite to get re-elected. 'A lot of them think, can this really happen again?', he said.
Our US Politics Watch report was written in conjunction with Oxford Analytica. A wide synopsis of the report is here. You can download the full version here. It will be updated monthly until election day on November 3rd, 2020.