EMEA Economic Calendar
What to expect in the Czech Republic
The Czech National Bank (CNB) decided not to distort the Christmas festive period and kept rates on hold in December. However, economic activity continues to be favourable and in line with the CNB forecast, which means that a February hike looks like a done deal in our view. The CNB will start to publish its EUR/CZK projection again to guide the market, and new interest rate forecasts will most likely continue to show just two hikes in 2018, though we think it is more reasonable to expect at least three hikes.
2018 interest rate hikes
What about the National Bank of Hungary?
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) will provide the excitement for next week, but not necessarily because of the rate-setting meeting. We don’t expect any shift in monetary policy, thus no change in rates and/or communication is our base case scenario. However, the NBH will keep its second MIRS tender, possibly based on new rules (see: FX Focus – NBH to anchor the curve (for now)), which might be triggered by the highly disappointing results and experience of the first tender.
Expect strong Polish GDP
In Poland, we expect an above-consensus 2017 GDP reading (4.6%YoY), reflecting the strong economic performance in 4Q17. Based on monthly data, we estimate that growth exceeded 5% year-on-year in the previous quarter.