The CIS Space: improving economic activity in Russia
In the CIS space, Kazakhstan's preliminary GDP growth estimate for 2017 may reveal around 4% growth.
Russia will have its key macro data for January, which may reveal a pick-up in real wages growth due to public wage indexation, but on the back of some base-effect related weakness in retail sales. Still, we expect to see improving momentum in economic activity in coming months.
Poland: monthly data to support strong growth
We expect monthly data for January to present a rosy picture of the economy with industrial production accelerating to 8% year-on-year and even stronger retail sales (9.2% year-on-year above market consensus at 7.3% year-on-year). Such figures should support strong GDP growth exceeding 5% year on year in 1Q18.
Croatia: a rating upgrade from Moody's?
We expect Moody’s to follow the other two major rating agencies and improve at least the rating outlook for Croatia from stable to positive with reasonable chances for a rating upgrade on improving debt metrics.