Article29 March 2018Reading time 2 minutes

Key events in EMEA and LATAM next week

Hungary: Expect mixed economic data ahead of the general election

In Hungary, we expect the manufacturing PMI to head south, in line with the recent moves all across Europe. The latest hard data could also be mixed. We think industrial production could disappoint, having come to a temporary halt in February, while retail sales may soar further given increasing real disposable incomes. 

There is also a general election set to take place on 8 April, where our base case is for a Fidesz/KDNP win with a simple majority. From a market perspective, this should be a fairly neutral/slightly positive outcome.

Poland: Soft CPI to support a dovish MPC

We expect Polish CPI to remain soft next week, which will support the MPC's dovish rhetoric. Elsewhere, manufacturing sentiment should remain stable, despite drops in other Eurozone countries.

Turkey: Inflation to slip despite recent TRY weakening

Thanks to supportive base effects, we expect inflation to decline to 10.1% in March (from 10.26% previously), despite the recent weakening in the TRY which has been the main factor keeping core inflation sticky. However, there are upside risks given an ongoing deterioration in pricing behaviour.

Next week's EMEA and LATAM calendar

Bloomberg, ING
Bloomberg, ING