Expect decent Polish activity and labour market figures
We expect decent activity and labour market figures. Industrial Production should reach double-digit dynamics (10.3% YoY), despite risks of a slowdown in the German manufacturing sector. Internal demand remains solid, supported by rising wages (7.4% YoY forecasted for April).
The CIS space: A story of growth, activity indiactors and a central bank
In the CIS space, Russia's major activity indicators for April are due next week. Industrial production is seen to be nearly stagnating, but don’t be deceived too much as a high base effect is here to stay in 2Q depressing the headline figure. Other income/consumption data is likely to show further growth.
Kazakhstan's GDP growth for 1Q18 is expected to be near 4%, but 4M18 growth has already eased to 3.8%, which bodes well for our expectation of weaker momentum going forward.
The National Bank of Ukraine is likely to keep its key rate on-hold at 17% to monitor further inflation developments.