Poland: Positives for the labour market, but as for industrial production...
The final CPI reading should provide further information about the increase in core inflation in March – from 1.0% to 1.3% year-on-year. We expect the higher reading was driven by supply side factors, such as bigger charges in telecommunication, rather than demand-driven growth.
Figures on the labour market should be relatively upbeat. We expect a stable increase in employment (2.9% YoY) and a modest deceleration of wages - from 7.6% to 6.8% YoY. Lower wage growth was probably driven by negative statistical effects in the construction sector.
Finally, we expect industrial production to decelerate from 6.9% to 3.5% YoY. Calendar effects subtract approximately two percentage points. Also, export-oriented sectors are likely to record a weaker performance when compared with February. We also expect a lower contribution from the mining sector.