Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Although next week’s calendar for Hungary looks quite thin, we still have two interesting data releases. First of all, the November CPI which will come in at 0% on a monthly basis mainly due to fuel price developments, in our view. This also means that core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% year-on-year. With these readings, the inflation trajectory remains lower than expected by the central bank, probably triggering a downward revision to the December Inflation Report. As the new containment measures were introduced in November, we expect a further significant deterioration in the budget deficit.

October retail sales will be partially hit by the second Covid lockdown and a closure of retail shops starting on 22 October. As such, a single-digit decline is again expected in YoY terms after very mild growth in September. Also, some small YoY contraction should occur in Czech industry in October, though car production slightly increased in YoY terms for the first time since February, according to the preliminary figure. Inflation is likely to further decelerate amid a higher base (2.7% YoY), which is broadly expected, but will stay firmly in the Czech National Bank's upper tolerance band.