Article20 February 2019Reading time 2 minutes

ASEAN Morning Bytes

General market tone: Risk-on.

Markets are seen to remain upbeat as Trump signals flexibility on March trade deadline and Fed stays dovish.

In this article

EM Space: US-China trade negotiations continue with Fed Williams singing dovish tune

  • General Asia: Fed Williams tuned a dovish leaf on Tuesday, indicating that the economy would need to take a turn before additional policy tightening was warranted.  The dovish tilt from the erstwhile hawk is seen to boost risk sentiment, all the more with Trump indicating that the fast-approaching March deadline on tariffs was not cast in stone.   
  • Thailand: The Bank of Thailand releases policy meeting minutes. We will be gleaning the document for the policymakers thinking on resurgent Thai baht, while they have been signaling a stable policy this year and also measures to curb excessive currency movements. We continue to expect a spike in the political anxiety in the run-up to the 24 March election to exert weakening pressure on the THB.
  • Philippines:  The Philippines reported a balance of payments (BoP) surplus of $2.7 bn in January, up from $2.3 bn in the previous month after the nation issued $1.5 bn worth of Dollar-denominated debt early in the year. The current BoP also reflects the central bank’s foreign exchange operations and investment income from abroad, leading to the end-January gross international reserves of $82.5bn.   

What to look out for: US-China trade talks and Fed minutes

  • US durable goods (21 February)
  • Indonesia policy meeting (21 February)
  • Fed minutes (21 February)