Article17 April 2019Reading time 2 minutes

ASEAN Morning Bytes

General market tone: Wait and see.

Investors to focus on the health of China’s economy on Wednesday.

In this article

EM Space: All eyes today are on China's GDP growth

  • General Asia: The data dump from China will be watched carefully with growth and retail sales numbers out in the morning session. In the US, the earnings season drove trading direction while crude oil inched yet higher after stockpile data.
  • Singapore: In yet another worst showing, non-oil domestic exports plunged by 11.7% YoY in March. The NODX report was in line with our -12% YoY but way off the -2.2% consensus estimates. Electronics with a 27% YoY fall persisted as the key source of NODX weakness. Data reinforces a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in 1Q19 revealed by the advance estimate last week. It also validates the MAS’s decision to leave the policy on hold. With the balance of economic risks tilted toward growth, the next move in the MAS policy could be an easing.                     
  • Indonesia:  Indonesians will troop to the polling stations on Wednesday.  The IDR and equity markets have been boosted by reports showing that incumbent President Jokowi would remain in power for the second term in a contest against his second-time rival Prabowo.  
  • Philippines: The President Duterte remains “steadfast and optimistic” on Philippine growth prospects even as the delayed budget was shaved by PHP 95.3bn (or 2.5%) to PHP3.66tr after certain spending provisions were vetoed down. Government spending has been a key contributor to growth in the past few quarters and the cutback in outlays may sap some growth momentum in the near term.

What to look out for: China GDP data and Fed speakers

  • Singapore exports (17 April)
  • Fed Kaplan (17 April)
  • China GDP, retail sales and industrial production (17 April)
  • EU inflation (17 April)
  • US retail sales (18 April)
  • Korea BoK meeting (18 April)
  • Fed Bullard and Harker speak (18 April)
  • Fed Bostic (19 April)