Article11 March 2019Reading time about 3 minutes

ASEAN Morning Bytes

General market tone:  Risk-off.

Concerns about global growth are seen to keep investors on the sidelines for now to await US retail sales data.

In this article

EM Space: Weak NFP and concerns about global growth seen to keep risk taking at bay

  • General Asia: The downside surprise on the US jobs numbers and concerns about slowing global growth will likely keep investors sidelined for now.  Dovish comments from Powell over the weekend mirrors the weak economic data although rising wage growth shows that the US economy is slowing rather than tanking.    
  • Thailand: Kanit Sangsubhan, a member of BoT’s monetary policy committee downplayed the risk of a rate hike at the meeting later this month, noting no apparent risks in the financial sector warranting a hike in borrowing rate while inflation continues to undershoot expectations despite firmer consumer confidence. We maintain our view of no changes to the BoT policy this year.
  • Indonesia: Bank Indonesia (BI) pledged to remain in the market to help provide liquidity to the banking system as the IDR slides on risk aversion. Central bank officials have indicated that BI is in the market, participating with a “large amount” to help slow the rapid depreciation seen in the currency.    
  • Philippines: Newly appointed Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Diokno appears open to reducing policy rates in the medium term should economic data evolve to warrant it. Decelerating inflation seen in recent months may prompt the central bank to walk back its aggressive rate hike in 2018. We maintain our forecast of two 25bps of rate cuts within 2019 starting from May.        

What to look out for: Asia trade data and US retail sales

  • US retail sales (11 March)
  • Philippine trade (12 March)
  • Singapore retail sales (12 March)
  • India inflation (12 March)
  • US inflation (12 March)
  • US PPI and durable goods (13 March)
  • China industrial production and retail sales (14 March)
  • Indonesia trade (15 March)
  • Thailand GIR (15 March)
  • India trade (15 March)
  • Philippines remittances (15 March)